To the average American observer chants of "Death to the Dictator" echoing from the streets of Tehran incite a feeling of empathetic righteousness. A totalitarian, religious dictatorship, unfriendly to the United States, Israel and seemingly the entire Western way of living has heard it's funeral bells toll. Ha, you're dead, we told you so. It is this rooting for the down trodden and the little guy, combined with the constant need to reinforce the inherent superiority of American values worldwide, that has caused the American press and thus it's people to predict the demise of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Americans love the concept of the "Regime Change." Not only do we get to wave goodbye to that hated former leaders, but the chance for spreading the seeds of democracy presents itself. Naturally in the case of Iran, we wish for the leadership, either President Ahmadinejad or the entire regime to fall and be replaced by something new. Nico Pitney of the Huffington Post places front and center "The widespread belief is that Rafsanjani has been in the holy city of Qom, working to assemble a religious and political coalition to topple the supreme leader and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad," under the title in big red letters, "ANALYSIS: RAFSANJANI POISED TO OUTFLANK KHAMENEI" This desire for regime change however, represents exactly the opposite of what is in the best interest of the United States and the worst possible outcome for the situation.
For our purposes let's define regime change in it's most obvious form in the case of Iran, Ahmadinejad looses the election, the Supreme Leader looses his position and another leader or group of leaders steps in to fill the void. The immediate problem stems from the fact that in this situation we no longer know who we're dealing with. It is highly unlikely that any new government would suddenly become friendly towards America. On top of that, we throw away all we have learned about and any headway we have made with the government under Khamenei. Secondly, it is highly unlikely that such a power shift would occur without violence. We know for a fact that at least half and likely more of the Iranian population supports the President and the current government Supreme Leader included. Moussavi supporters and reformists are at best a large minority. Frankly, I fail to see a realistic situation in which any sort of fundamental regime shift produces a positive or even acceptable result.
Our focus instead, should be on the ways in which the current government of Iran may be changed in place, avoiding the trauma of a complete refit. In a recent poll of Iranians by Terror Free Tomorrow (www.terrorfreetomorrow.org) 77% of Iranians expressed the wish to vote for the position of Supreme Leader. Even more astoundingly, 86% of Ahmadinejad supporters expressed the same wish. Another trend outlined in the same report, shows that 77% want to normalize relations with the United States. The same report showed Mr. Ahmadinejad leading in 2-1 among those polled. This proves that the initiative towards a more free democracy and better relations with the US among Iran's people completely transcends the Presidential debate.
View the Terror Free Tomorrow report here:
http://www.terrorfreetomorrow.org/upimagestft/TFT%20Iran%20Survey%20Report%200609.pdf
I don't mean to downplay the events in the streets of Tehran over the last week. I do however believe that we in the West have viewed them in the wrong light. This is not a call for sweeping regime change or the collapse of the Islamic Republic. What we are witnessing is the way in which a population which believes itself to have been deprived of a fair vote expresses it's opinion. We should not look for a drastic shift within Iran in time for the next news cycle, nor for a student led revolt. What we are seeing is the beginning of a process, the start of a nation's necessity driven journey towards greater democracy. What we must hope for at this point, is for the current government to stay intact long enough to realize that it must adapt to keep it's position of power, thus leading to positive change in Iran.
A discussion today at The New America Foundation on the subject of the Iranian Election which sparked my thought process for the piece above.
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